Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-19.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapRams
- +0.118EPA / play-0.226
- 40.9%Success rate43.3%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.270
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -11.92CPOE-4.74
- 56.3%Third-down rate22.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.57Points / drive0.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. LA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-21.78
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-19.48