Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapRams
- +0.113EPA / play+0.047
- 47.1%Success rate48.7%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.094
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.031
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.39CPOE+0.50
- 39.9%Third-down rate44.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 2.26Points / drive2.15
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. LA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.00