2026 · Week 13
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapBuccaneers
- -0.231EPA / play-0.091
- 35.9%Success rate41.1%
- -0.210EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.262EPA / rush-0.023
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.44CPOE-3.59
- 34.6%Third-down rate39.8%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 1.17Points / drive1.80
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
TB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 58.8 points. TB are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.72