Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapBrowns
- -0.087EPA / play-0.067
- 42.9%Success rate42.8%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.202
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -7.31CPOE-0.41
- 35.0%Third-down rate32.6%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 1.72Points / drive1.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.01