Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapBrowns
- -0.358EPA / play-0.206
- 36.7%Success rate43.1%
- -0.638EPA / dropback-0.257
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -10.42CPOE+10.32
- 16.7%Third-down rate12.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 0.46Points / drive1.11
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.26
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.04