Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapDolphins
- +0.052EPA / play-0.049
- 47.0%Success rate39.8%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.107
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.30CPOE-6.93
- 44.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.27Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.55