Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-9.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapDolphins
- +0.361EPA / play-0.242
- 53.3%Success rate34.5%
- +0.551EPA / dropback-0.183
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.399
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- +16.58CPOE-8.85
- 71.4%Third-down rate20.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 4.19Points / drive1.18
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–1 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. MIA are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-11.95
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.73