Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+9.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapCommanders
- +0.071EPA / play+0.073
- 48.1%Success rate43.5%
- +0.098EPA / dropback+0.160
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.9%Explosive rate4.3%
- +3.16CPOE-3.44
- 43.8%Third-down rate33.3%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.80Points / drive1.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.79
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.00