Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapCommanders
- +0.031EPA / play-0.005
- 43.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.27CPOE+2.73
- 37.8%Third-down rate32.2%
- 60.4%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.92
- 0.7%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.40