Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapEagles
- +0.031EPA / play-0.096
- 43.4%Success rate37.7%
- +0.138EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.4%Explosive rate4.6%
- +2.27CPOE-2.40
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.2%
- 60.4%Red-zone TD rate73.9%
- 2.19Points / drive1.70
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.31