Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+8.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapEagles
- +0.071EPA / play+0.027
- 48.1%Success rate34.0%
- +0.098EPA / dropback+0.136
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.16CPOE+0.87
- 43.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.80Points / drive1.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.81
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+8.11