Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapPackers
- +0.071EPA / play-0.181
- 48.1%Success rate38.2%
- +0.098EPA / dropback-0.059
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.438
- 8.9%Explosive rate13.2%
- +3.16CPOE-9.65
- 43.8%Third-down rate25.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.80Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.19