Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapPackers
- +0.031EPA / play+0.010
- 43.4%Success rate40.0%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.266
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.27CPOE-1.28
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 60.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.96
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–1 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.74