1999 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

10·19

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Hobert

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+0.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.148
  • 42.4%Success rate36.9%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.247
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 38.5%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.053EPA / play allowed+0.007

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
CARQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 14:4800Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 14:4836Punt0–7
NOQ1 13:47411Punt0–7
CARQ1 11:2530Punt0–7
NOQ1 10:1839Punt0–7
CARQ1 8:50351Turnover0–7
NOQ1 7:193-1Punt0–7
CARQ1 6:083-5Punt0–7
NOQ1 4:1036Punt0–7
CARQ1 2:5131Punt0–7
NOQ1 0:51634Field goal0–10
CARQ2 12:52669Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 9:2237Punt7–10
CARQ2 7:4669Punt7–10
NOQ2 4:0737Punt7–10
CARQ2 2:14413Field goal10–10
NOQ2 1:39728Punt10–10
CARQ2 0:07227End of half10–10
NOQ3 15:00828Punt10–10
CARQ3 10:2145Turnover10–10
NOQ3 8:27512Field goal10–13
CARQ3 6:1438Punt10–13
NOQ3 5:03268Touchdown10–19
CARQ3 4:14524Punt10–19
NOQ3 0:58821Punt10–19
CARQ4 12:073-4Punt10–19
NOQ4 10:3054Punt10–19
CARQ4 7:02842Missed field goal10–19
NOQ4 3:32623End of half10–19

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein16/3220711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka8455.60
Fred Lane6305.00
Steve Beuerlein188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad49640
Rae Carruth58630
Wesley Walls36371
Fred Lane22360
Tim Biakabutuka1250
Michael Bates1120
Donald Hayes0100
Patrick Jeffers0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Hobert11/2213210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith13665.10
Ricky Williams10404.00
Troy Davis9182.00
Billy Joe Hobert471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keith Poole36891
Andre Hastings11120
Eddie Kennison24110
Scott Slutzker0200
Lamar Smith12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.50