Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.148
- 42.4%Success rate36.9%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.247
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- 38.5%Third-down rate34.1%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.98Points / drive1.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 16/32 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Rae Carruth | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Fred Lane | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Hobert | 11/22 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Poole | 3 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Slutzker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50