Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play-0.015
- 38.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.113
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.80CPOE+1.94
- 34.8%Third-down rate39.4%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.00Points / drive1.82
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 13/36 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/26 | 119 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Lynn Bowden | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.03