2023 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

6·28

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

39

Model margin

+6.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.160EPA / play-0.015
  • 38.2%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.113
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.80CPOE+1.94
  • 34.8%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.82
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
CARQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NOQ1 14:011045Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 9:04517Turnover0–0
NOQ1 6:2237Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:4537Punt0–0
NOQ1 3:07644Touchdown0–7
CARQ2 14:551146Field goal3–7
NOQ2 9:16616Punt3–7
CARQ2 6:064-3Opp touchdown3–14
CARQ2 4:371041Turnover on downs3–14
NOQ2 1:0543Turnover3–14
CARQ2 0:1840Turnover on downs3–14
NOQ3 15:0028Punt3–14
NOQ3 13:4511Punt3–14
NOQ3 12:573-4Punt3–14
CARQ3 11:131175Field goal6–14
NOQ3 4:573-1Punt6–14
CARQ3 2:55747Missed field goal6–14
NOQ4 13:3532Punt6–14
CARQ4 12:16825Turnover on downs6–14
NOQ4 8:12564Touchdown6–21
CARQ4 5:5940Turnover on downs6–21
NOQ4 5:27424Touchdown6–28
CARQ4 4:291145Turnover on downs6–28
NOQ4 1:0800End of half6–28

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young13/3613700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard23873.80
Miles Sanders10747.40
Bryce Young34013.30
Ihmir Smith-Marsette11010.00
Raheem Blackshear144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen57740
DJ Chark24260
Jonathan Mingo29220
Chuba Hubbard2290
Raheem Blackshear1240
Tommy Tremble1320
Stephen Sullivan0400
Ihmir Smith-Marsette0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr18/2611921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara12564.71
Jamaal Williams11433.90
Jameis Winston2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.T. Perry11440
Chris Olave45281
Lynn Bowden44240
Jimmy Graham22161
Juwan Johnson23100
Foster Moreau2280
Jamaal Williams0100
Alvin Kamara34-110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.03