Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.025
- 42.4%Success rate43.7%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.072
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.72CPOE+1.44
- 39.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.53Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 19/27 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 92 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 17/25 | 124 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.69