2025 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

17·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.025
  • 42.4%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.072
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.72CPOE+1.44
  • 39.4%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.80
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:001447Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 7:59978Field goal3–7
CARQ1 2:52419Punt3–7
NOQ1 0:4737Punt3–7
CARQ2 14:483-12Punt3–7
NOQ2 13:18775Touchdown10–7
CARQ2 9:2137Punt10–7
NOQ2 7:43532Punt10–7
CARQ2 6:0933Punt10–7
NOQ2 3:54944Punt10–7
CARQ2 0:21319End of half10–7
NOQ3 15:00418Punt10–7
CARQ3 12:501060Missed field goal10–7
CARQ3 6:29415Turnover10–7
NOQ3 4:301243Turnover on downs10–7
CARQ4 13:3815Turnover10–7
CARQ4 13:0010Turnover10–7
NOQ4 12:54543Touchdown17–7
CARQ4 10:20712Turnover on downs17–7
NOQ4 7:351154End of half17–7

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough19/2728220
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara22833.80
Devin Neal4225.50
Taysom Hill7202.90
Tyler Shough4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave581041
Juwan Johnson44921
Alvin Kamara33320
Foster Moreau23160
Devaughn Vele13150
Zaire Mitchell-Paden11140
Devin Neal3390
Taysom Hill0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young17/2512401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle18532.91
Chuba Hubbard3144.70
Bryce Young263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan58600
Ja'Tavion Sanders55320
Jalen Coker34210
Rico Dowdle33100
Chuba Hubbard1110
Xavier Legette0100
Mitchell Evans0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.69