Closing spread
NO -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.160
- 42.2%Success rate38.2%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.94CPOE-1.80
- 39.4%Third-down rate34.8%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 1.82Points / drive1.00
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/36 | 228 | 0 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 75 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 11 | 86 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 22/33 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.62