2023 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

20·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.015EPA / play-0.160
  • 42.2%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.94CPOE-1.80
  • 39.4%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.00
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:57836Field goal0–3
NOQ1 7:041559Field goal3–3
CARQ1 0:36414Punt3–3
NOQ2 14:151246Field goal6–3
CARQ2 9:523-3Punt6–3
NOQ2 8:21419Punt6–3
CARQ2 6:18422Punt6–3
NOQ2 4:0336Turnover6–3
CARQ2 3:06416Turnover6–3
NOQ2 1:416-2Punt6–3
CARQ2 0:2813End of half6–3
CARQ3 15:00719Punt6–3
NOQ3 11:4333Punt6–3
CARQ3 10:2539Field goal6–6
NOQ3 9:101180Touchdown13–6
CARQ3 2:5633Punt13–6
NOQ3 1:25733Punt13–6
CARQ4 12:471145Field goal13–9
NOQ4 5:30679Touchdown20–9
CARQ4 3:141175Touchdown20–17
NOQ4 1:16111End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/3622801
Taysom Hill1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill9758.30
Tony Jones12342.82
Jamaal Williams9293.20
Derek Carr3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave611860
Rashid Shaheed44630
Michael Thomas79550
Foster Moreau22200
Juwan Johnson23130
Keith Kirkwood0100
Tony Jones0200
Taysom Hill12-10

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young22/3315310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders14433.10
Bryce Young23417.00
Chuba Hubbard2168.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen79541
Chuba Hubbard55340
Jonathan Mingo38260
Hayden Hurst33200
DJ Chark11150
Miles Sanders3540

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.62