Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.076
- 43.7%Success rate42.4%
- +0.007EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
- +1.44CPOE+1.72
- 35.7%Third-down rate39.4%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.80Points / drive1.53
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/24 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 24/32 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Evan Hull | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 9 | 85 | 1 |
| Devaughn Vele | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.54