2025 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

17·20

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.076
  • 43.7%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
  • +1.44CPOE+1.72
  • 35.7%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.53
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:571374Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 6:39622Punt7–0
CARQ1 2:45627Punt7–0
NOQ2 14:542095Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 3:32851Field goal10–7
NOQ2 0:2100End of half10–7
CARQ3 15:00980Touchdown17–7
NOQ3 9:541445Field goal17–10
CARQ3 1:561137Turnover on downs17–10
NOQ4 10:561042Turnover on downs17–10
CARQ4 6:5339Punt17–10
NOQ4 4:37883Touchdown17–17
CARQ4 2:29614Punt17–17
NOQ4 0:57647Field goal17–20
CARQ4 0:021-11Turnover17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young15/2416310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle16493.11
Bryce Young7497.00
Chuba Hubbard8293.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker44601
Xavier Legette23390
Tetairoa McMillan24250
Tommy Tremble24130
Chuba Hubbard1190
Jimmy Horn Jr.1170
Rico Dowdle1150
Ja'Tavion Sanders2250

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough24/3227210
Spencer Rattler0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Shough8324.00
Devin Neal7284.01
Evan Hull4123.00
Audric Estimé3113.70
Taysom Hill221.00
Mason Tipton1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave69851
Devaughn Vele56690
Audric Estimé33390
Kevin Austin Jr.35330
Juwan Johnson44300
Jack Stoll1170
Mason Tipton1250
Devin Neal1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.54