2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

14·22

Panthers

Carolina

QB Baker Mayfield

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

41

Model margin

-2.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.037EPA / play-0.036
  • 45.5%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.005
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.61CPOE-4.71
  • 40.9%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.70
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:37967Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:2134Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:263-3Opp touchdown0–7
NOQ1 5:3234Punt0–7
CARQ1 4:26940Field goal0–10
NOQ2 14:16411Punt0–10
CARQ2 11:443-4Punt0–10
NOQ2 10:05413Punt0–10
CARQ2 8:32952Field goal0–13
NOQ2 2:56970Missed field goal0–13
CARQ2 0:272-6End of half0–13
NOQ3 15:001362Missed field goal0–13
CARQ3 7:16524Turnover on downs0–13
NOQ3 5:0636Punt0–13
CARQ3 3:49637Punt0–13
NOQ3 0:591089Touchdown7–13
CARQ4 12:31267Touchdown7–19
NOQ4 12:06311Turnover7–19
CARQ4 11:19619Field goal7–22
NOQ4 8:1946Punt7–22
CARQ4 6:50737Punt7–22
NOQ4 3:28390Touchdown14–22
CARQ4 2:2239Punt14–22
NOQ4 0:1710Turnover14–22
CARQ4 0:0800End of half14–22

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston25/4135312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara15614.10
Mark Ingram5183.61
Jameis Winston252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave9131470
Tre'Quan Smith451050
Michael Thomas55490
Jarvis Landry25220
Alvin Kamara27120
Adam Trautman1190
Nick Vannett1150
Marquez Callaway1141
Juwan Johnson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield12/2517010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey251084.30
Chuba Hubbard3258.30
DJ Moore2136.50
Baker Mayfield1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laviska Shenault Jr.22901
Shi Smith22220
Giovanni Ricci12150
Robbie Chosen14140
Ian Thomas23130
Christian McCaffrey2470
Tommy Tremble1170
DJ Moore1620

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.17