Closing spread
NO -2
Total
41
Model margin
-2.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.036
- 45.5%Success rate40.8%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.005
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.61CPOE-4.71
- 40.9%Third-down rate31.6%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.70
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 25/41 | 353 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 9 | 13 | 147 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 5 | 105 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/25 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 25 | 108 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 90 | 1 |
| Shi Smith | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.17