2024 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

22·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.040
  • 40.6%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.040
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -3.67CPOE+0.06
  • 36.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.88
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:00967Field goal3–0
CARQ1 10:51513Punt3–0
NOQ1 8:151157Field goal6–0
CARQ1 3:08420Punt6–0
NOQ1 0:4832Punt6–0
CARQ2 14:49845Touchdown6–7
NOQ2 9:591168Touchdown13–7
CARQ2 4:13528Punt13–7
NOQ2 1:423-1Punt13–7
CARQ2 1:173-2Field goal13–10
NOQ2 0:38350End of half13–10
CARQ3 15:00986Touchdown13–17
NOQ3 9:551137Field goal16–17
CARQ3 4:153-3Punt16–17
NOQ3 2:351170Touchdown22–17
CARQ4 11:55516Turnover22–17
NOQ4 9:14740Punt22–17
CARQ4 5:4234Punt22–17
NOQ4 4:35411Punt22–17
CARQ4 3:26542Touchdown22–23
NOQ4 2:18626Turnover on downs22–23
CARQ4 1:0400End of half22–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr18/3123610
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara291555.30
Taysom Hill5193.81
Jordan Mims5132.60
Jermaine Jackson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara69600
Taysom Hill45410
Juwan Johnson22410
Cedrick Wilson Jr.23340
Jordan Mims11250
Foster Moreau12171
Chris Olave11130
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1150
Mason Tipton0300

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young16/2617111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard15724.82
Bryce Young492.30
Xavier Legette166.00
Deven Thompkins1-2-2.00
Miles Sanders2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Tavion Sanders45870
Jalen Coker23360
Xavier Legette46331
David Moore24200
Chuba Hubbard2300
Jonathan Mingo0100
Miles Sanders22-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.91