Closing spread
NO -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.040
- 40.6%Success rate41.8%
- -0.071EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- -3.67CPOE+0.06
- 36.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.72Points / drive1.88
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/31 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 29 | 155 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jordan Mims | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16/26 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91