Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.057
- 41.8%Success rate40.6%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.06CPOE-3.67
- 36.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.88Points / drive1.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 13/30 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/23 | 200 | 3 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bub Means | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50