2024 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

10·47

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.057
  • 41.8%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.036
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.06CPOE-3.67
  • 36.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.72
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:00576Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 12:0810Turnover0–7
NOQ1 11:5446Field goal0–10
CARQ1 10:04515Punt0–10
NOQ1 7:011179Touchdown0–17
CARQ1 1:23717Punt0–17
NOQ2 12:10833Field goal0–20
CARQ2 7:0327Turnover0–20
NOQ2 6:05719Field goal0–23
CARQ2 2:083-5Punt0–29
NOQ2 1:24116Touchdown0–30
CARQ2 1:18840Field goal3–30
CARQ3 15:003-2Turnover3–30
NOQ3 13:531156Touchdown3–37
CARQ3 8:27860Touchdown10–37
NOQ3 4:551143Field goal10–40
CARQ4 13:083-7Punt10–40
NOQ4 11:21236Touchdown10–47
CARQ4 10:381056Turnover on downs10–47
NOQ4 6:5138Punt10–47
CARQ4 4:2945Turnover on downs10–47
NOQ4 4:0737Punt10–47
CARQ4 2:1636Punt10–47
CARQ4 1:0621End of half10–47

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young13/3016102
Andy Dalton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders5224.40
Chuba Hubbard6142.30
Bryce Young4123.01
Mike Boone471.80
Jonathan Mingo133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen34490
Jonathan Mingo25400
Xavier Legette47350
Diontae Johnson26190
David Moore13140
Ja'Tavion Sanders1140
Jordan Matthews0100
Miles Sanders0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr19/2320030
Jake Haener0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara15835.51
Jamaal Williams11383.51
Taysom Hill5357.00
Derek Carr2136.50
Jordan Mims4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed35731
Foster Moreau44431
Alvin Kamara55270
Juwan Johnson23261
Jamaal Williams11130
Chris Olave22110
Mason Tipton1160
Taysom Hill1210
Bub Means0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.50