2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

10·7

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.037
  • 40.8%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.109
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -4.71CPOE+1.61
  • 31.6%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.59
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR
2021 · W17CAR @ NO10–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 11:01516Punt0–7
NOQ1 7:52627Punt0–7
CARQ1 5:0439Punt0–7
NOQ1 3:04735Missed field goal0–7
CARQ2 14:1531Punt0–7
NOQ2 13:111162Turnover on downs0–7
CARQ2 7:181542Turnover0–7
NOQ2 0:27333Turnover0–7
CARQ2 0:031-8End of half0–7
CARQ3 15:001481Touchdown7–7
NOQ3 6:4537Punt7–7
CARQ3 5:0438Punt7–7
NOQ3 2:401021Punt7–7
CARQ4 11:53624Punt7–7
NOQ4 8:1637Punt7–7
CARQ4 6:503-1Punt7–7
NOQ4 4:49639Punt7–7
CARQ4 1:4710Turnover7–7
NOQ4 1:363-2Missed field goal7–7
CARQ4 1:20531Field goal10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold5/154302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard21693.30
D'Onta Foreman12685.70
Sam Darnold6325.30
Laviska Shenault Jr.111.00
Raheem Blackshear111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrace Marshall Jr.23230
DJ Moore14100
Laviska Shenault Jr.1180
Tommy Tremble1120
Chuba Hubbard0100
Shi Smith0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/2517110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara231074.70
Taysom Hill5244.80
Rashid Shaheed177.00
Eno Benjamin231.50
Andy Dalton122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave512601
Rashid Shaheed34340
David Johnson22280
Juwan Johnson11210
Adam Trautman11180
Tre'Quan Smith1160
Alvin Kamara1230
Taysom Hill1110
Marquez Callaway0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.32