Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.037
- 40.8%Success rate45.5%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.109
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -4.71CPOE+1.61
- 31.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.70Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 5/15 | 43 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/25 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 12 | 60 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32