1999 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

35·36

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -9

Total

42

Model margin

+5.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.007
  • 39.4%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.083
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 39.2%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 43.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.52
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.042

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. TEN are 7-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8TEN @ CIN36–43CIN
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TEN
TENQ1 15:00653Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 13:051468Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 5:29750Turnover7–7
CINQ1 1:5932Turnover7–7
TENQ1 0:42324Touchdown7–14
CINQ1 0:053-1Safety7–16
TENQ2 14:07623Field goal7–19
CINQ2 10:02522Turnover7–19
TENQ2 7:03354Touchdown7–26
CINQ2 5:32877Touchdown15–26
TENQ2 1:55350Turnover15–26
CINQ2 1:12961Touchdown21–26
TENQ2 0:0600End of half21–26
CINQ3 15:001070Touchdown29–26
TENQ3 10:3738Punt29–26
CINQ3 8:55413Punt29–26
TENQ3 5:53215Turnover29–26
CINQ3 5:0139Punt29–26
TENQ3 2:41517Punt29–26
CINQ3 0:581256Field goal32–26
TENQ4 10:1525Turnover32–26
CINQ4 9:2636Field goal35–26
TENQ4 7:56970Touchdown35–33
CINQ4 4:3044Punt35–33
TENQ4 2:24634Field goal35–36
CINQ4 0:08211End of half35–36

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake18/3118222
Akili Smith1/21100
Scott Covington1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Blake11908.20
Corey Dillon21663.11
Brian Milne33010.00
Ki-Jana Carter6152.51
Akili Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott712800
Willie Jackson59601
Carl Pickens34210
Tony McGee22141
Ki-Jana Carter12110
Corey Dillon23110
Craig Yeast0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair21/3234131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George12423.50
Steve McNair6274.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Dyson9131622
Yancey Thigpen47740
Frank Wycheck34510
Eddie George34371
Chris Sanders23170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.97