Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
42
Model margin
+5.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.007
- 39.4%Success rate40.1%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 39.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.24Points / drive1.52
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/31 | 182 | 2 | 2 |
| Akili Smith | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Covington | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 11 | 90 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Brian Milne | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Akili Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 7 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Carl Pickens | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/32 | 341 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 9 | 13 | 162 | 2 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.97