2020 · Week 8

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 24mph

Closing spread

TEN -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBengals
  • +0.189EPA / play-0.041
  • 50.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback+0.005
  • +0.070EPA / rush-0.122
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +2.16CPOE+0.03
  • 47.4%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.87
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN
2011 · W9CIN @ TEN24–17CIN
2008 · W2TEN @ CIN24–7TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CIN
CINQ1 15:001162Field goal0–3
TENQ1 9:48861Turnover0–3
CINQ1 5:07512Punt0–3
TENQ1 3:11743Missed field goal0–3
CINQ1 0:251040Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 10:261060Touchdown7–10
CINQ2 6:041063Touchdown7–17
TENQ2 0:32636End of half7–17
TENQ3 15:00754Punt7–17
CINQ3 11:11630Punt7–17
TENQ3 8:00734Punt7–17
CINQ3 4:321276Touchdown7–24
TENQ4 13:55975Touchdown14–24
CINQ4 11:20744Touchdown14–31
TENQ4 7:30770Touchdown20–31
CINQ4 5:561240Punt20–31
TENQ4 0:1618End of half20–31

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/3023321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry181126.21
Jeremy McNichols44912.30
D'Onta Foreman5377.40
Ryan Tannehill22010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis8101281
Anthony Firkser23360
Jonnu Smith22290
A.J. Brown47241
Kalif Raymond11110
MyCole Pruitt0100
Adam Humphries0200
Derrick Henry0100
Jeremy McNichols0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow26/3724920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard15624.11
Samaje Perine10323.21
Tyler Boyd294.50
Joe Burrow393.00
Tee Higgins263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins69780
Tyler Boyd67671
Auden Tate77650
A.J. Green25190
Giovani Bernard34161
Cethan Carter1120
Samaje Perine1120
Drew Sample0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.63