Closing spread
TEN -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play-0.041
- 50.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.297EPA / dropback+0.005
- +0.070EPA / rush-0.122
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.5%
- +2.16CPOE+0.03
- 47.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.85Points / drive1.87
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/30 | 233 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 112 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 8 | 10 | 128 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/37 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Auden Tate | 7 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.63