Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play-0.019
- 39.5%Success rate42.0%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.020
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.82CPOE+0.60
- 29.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.86
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 17/34 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/23 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1/2 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Jeremy Hill | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.88