2014 · Week 3

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

7·33

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBengals
  • -0.122EPA / play-0.019
  • 39.5%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.020
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.82CPOE+0.60
  • 29.7%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.86
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2011 · W9CIN @ TEN24–17CIN
2008 · W2TEN @ CIN24–7TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CIN
TENQ1 15:00964Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 8:51946Field goal0–3
TENQ1 4:48423Punt0–3
CINQ1 2:35573Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 15:00845Missed field goal0–10
CINQ2 11:11513Punt0–10
TENQ2 8:3232Safety0–12
CINQ2 6:25410Punt0–12
TENQ2 4:3831Turnover0–12
CINQ2 3:3821Touchdown0–19
TENQ2 3:29537Punt0–19
CINQ2 0:5010Turnover0–19
TENQ2 0:44314Turnover0–19
CINQ2 0:1600End of half0–19
CINQ3 15:0030Punt0–19
TENQ3 13:55943Punt0–19
CINQ3 9:161570Touchdown0–26
TENQ3 1:58927Punt0–26
CINQ4 13:33876Touchdown0–33
TENQ4 9:26765Touchdown7–33
CINQ4 6:0955Turnover on downs7–33
TENQ4 3:2076Turnover on downs7–33
CINQ4 2:0637Punt7–33
TENQ4 0:1600End of half7–33

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker17/3418502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey10616.10
Jake Locker6508.30
Shonn Greene10333.31
Jackie Battle155.00
Dexter McCluster100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker47540
Kendall Wright510440
Justin Hunter37370
Craig Stevens22260
Dexter McCluster22150
Bishop Sankey1190
Nate Washington0300
Taylor Thompson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/2316901
Mohamed Sanu1/11810
Jason Campbell1/2-300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard14473.42
Jeremy Hill7395.61
Cedric Peerman5153.00
Brandon Tate11212.00
Andy Dalton331.00
Ryan Hewitt100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green691020
Mohamed Sanu58440
Andy Dalton11181
Giovani Bernard1370
Ryan Hewitt1160
Brandon Tate1150
Jermaine Gresham1150
James Wright0100
Kevin Brock11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.88