Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.023
- 44.4%Success rate40.9%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +2.09CPOE+0.48
- 38.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.57
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/30 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/25 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Colton Dowell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.58
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.98