Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+11.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapBengals
- -0.141EPA / play+0.001
- 44.0%Success rate47.6%
- -0.152EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.050
- 4.0%Explosive rate11.1%
- +0.39CPOE+6.35
- 33.3%Third-down rate57.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 0.99Points / drive2.11
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.81
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.03