Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.104
- 48.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.175
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +6.81CPOE+0.11
- 47.3%Third-down rate38.0%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.50Points / drive1.35
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/37 | 271 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Cam Grandy | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 21/26 | 209 | 2 | 1 |
| Will Levis | 8/12 | 89 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Will Levis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 7 | 87 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 8 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.03