2024 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

37·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.104
  • 48.0%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.175
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +6.81CPOE+0.11
  • 47.3%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.50Points / drive1.35
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN
2011 · W9CIN @ TEN24–17CIN
2008 · W2TEN @ CIN24–7TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TEN
CINQ1 15:0024Turnover0–0
TENQ1 14:15629Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:52970Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 6:36648Touchdown7–14
CINQ1 3:58938Turnover7–14
TENQ2 13:55821Turnover7–14
CINQ2 10:051057Touchdown14–14
TENQ2 5:13519Turnover14–14
CINQ2 1:59344Touchdown21–14
TENQ2 1:1210Turnover21–14
CINQ2 1:07945Field goal24–14
TENQ2 0:0200End of half24–14
TENQ3 15:0040Punt24–14
CINQ3 12:15619Turnover24–14
TENQ3 8:49318Opp touchdown31–14
TENQ3 7:24831Turnover31–14
TENQ3 3:031351Turnover31–14
CINQ4 13:05522Punt31–14
TENQ4 10:29987Touchdown31–21
CINQ4 6:501571Touchdown37–21
TENQ4 1:09670Touchdown37–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow26/3727132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown25973.91
Khalil Herbert144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase911940
Tee Higgins58881
Mike Gesicki34370
Chase Brown33161
Cam Grandy22120
Tanner Hudson1190
Drew Sample1180
Andrei Iosivas1450

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph21/2620921
Will Levis8/128903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard17452.61
Calvin Ridley11919.00
Mason Rudolph2147.00
Tyjae Spears451.31
Will Levis200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyjae Spears67871
Chig Okonkwo810590
Calvin Ridley35410
Tyler Boyd23390
Josh Whyle55371
Mason Kinsey11110
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine2390
Bryce Oliver1280
Nick Vannett1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.03