2017 · Week 10

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.069
  • 39.2%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.89CPOE+0.43
  • 34.7%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.73
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. TEN are 7-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8TEN @ CIN36–43CIN
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN
2011 · W9CIN @ TEN24–17CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TEN
CINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:211099Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 7:56975Touchdown6–7
TENQ1 4:44618Punt6–7
CINQ1 0:51416Punt6–7
TENQ2 13:571084Missed field goal6–7
CINQ2 8:053-11Turnover6–7
TENQ2 6:39518Touchdown6–14
CINQ2 5:08667Turnover6–14
TENQ2 1:5610Turnover12–14
CINQ2 1:4613Touchdown13–14
TENQ2 1:421048Field goal13–17
TENQ3 15:0032Punt13–17
CINQ3 13:5531Punt13–17
TENQ3 13:03314Punt13–17
CINQ3 11:0536Punt13–17
TENQ3 9:3887Punt13–17
CINQ3 6:08412Punt13–17
TENQ3 4:321269Turnover13–17
CINQ4 13:19413Punt13–17
TENQ4 11:466-8Punt13–17
CINQ4 8:3037Punt13–17
TENQ4 6:513-3Punt13–17
CINQ4 5:44282Touchdown20–17
TENQ4 5:031368Touchdown20–24
CINQ4 0:36630End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3526520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon9374.11
Giovani Bernard2105.00
Alex Erickson263.00
Andy Dalton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green571151
Brandon LaFell610951
Giovani Bernard55380
Josh Malone1160
Tyler Kroft1640
Alex Erickson1140
Joe Mixon1330
John Ross0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota25/4426411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry11524.70
Marcus Mariota6518.50
DeMarco Murray14423.02
Taywan Taylor144.00
Jalston Fowler111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker69630
Rishard Matthews57500
Corey Davis410480
Taywan Taylor23340
DeMarco Murray44301
Jonnu Smith25200
Eric Decker23190
Derrick Henry0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.84