Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.069
- 39.2%Success rate42.6%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.89CPOE+0.43
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.73
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/35 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 115 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 10 | 95 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| John Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 25/44 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 4 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84