2021 · DIV

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

19·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.025
  • 44.6%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +5.14CPOE+2.33
  • 40.1%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.15
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN
2011 · W9CIN @ TEN24–17CIN
2008 · W2TEN @ CIN24–7TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TEN
TENQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
CINQ1 14:53527Field goal3–0
TENQ1 12:033-6Punt3–0
CINQ1 10:003-4Punt3–0
TENQ1 8:29621Punt3–0
CINQ1 5:52561Field goal6–0
TENQ1 2:11522Punt6–0
CINQ2 14:52628Punt6–0
TENQ2 11:17984Touchdown6–6
CINQ2 6:071044Field goal9–6
TENQ2 1:3538Punt9–6
CINQ2 1:02658End of half9–6
CINQ3 15:00965Touchdown16–6
TENQ3 9:34566Turnover16–6
CINQ3 6:4135Punt16–6
TENQ3 5:00656Field goal16–9
CINQ3 1:3610Turnover16–9
TENQ3 1:19232Touchdown16–16
CINQ3 0:15632Punt16–16
TENQ4 11:18746Turnover on downs16–16
CINQ4 7:16610Punt16–16
TENQ4 2:43524Turnover16–16
CINQ4 0:20319Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow28/3734801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14543.91
Joe Burrow252.50
Chris Evans144.00
Ja'Marr Chase122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase561090
Tee Higgins79960
C.J. Uzomah78710
Joe Mixon67510
Tyler Boyd23170
Samaje Perine1240

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2422013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman46616.50
Derrick Henry20623.11
Ryan Tannehill3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown591421
Julio Jones67620
Dontrell Hilliard33130
Chester Rogers1230
Anthony Firkser0100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.45