Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.025
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +5.14CPOE+2.33
- 40.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.38Points / drive2.15
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/37 | 348 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 7 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/24 | 220 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 4 | 66 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 9 | 142 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.45