2022 · Week 12

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

20·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

43

Model margin

-1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.066
  • 47.8%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.74CPOE-0.94
  • 47.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.46
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. TEN are 7-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8TEN @ CIN36–43CIN
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN
2011 · W9CIN @ TEN24–17CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TEN
CINQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:50741Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:2633Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:3631Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:083-3Punt0–0
TENQ1 3:07939Field goal0–3
CINQ2 14:06647Field goal3–3
TENQ2 11:30169Touchdown3–10
CINQ2 11:1549Punt3–10
TENQ2 9:0931Punt3–10
CINQ2 7:29992Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 1:551068Missed field goal10–10
CINQ2 0:0400End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:003-6Punt10–10
CINQ3 13:3849Punt10–10
TENQ3 11:36619Punt10–10
CINQ3 7:541358Field goal13–10
TENQ3 2:35457Field goal13–13
CINQ3 0:39770Touchdown20–13
TENQ4 13:421155Field goal20–16
CINQ4 6:07962End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow22/3727010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine17583.41
Joe Burrow9323.60
Trayveon Williams2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins791141
Hayden Hurst69570
Samaje Perine47350
Trayveon Williams11240
Tyler Boyd24160
Trenton Irwin14160
Trent Taylor1280

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/3429100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17382.20
Dontrell Hilliard2168.00
Ryan Tannehill294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Henry33790
Treylon Burks46700
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine46580
Chig Okonkwo35350
Austin Hooper34300
Robert Woods26160
Dontrell Hilliard3330
Geoff Swaim0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.39