Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
43
Model margin
-1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.066
- 47.8%Success rate41.2%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.74CPOE-0.94
- 47.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 2.27Points / drive1.46
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/37 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 9 | 114 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/34 | 291 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 38 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 79 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.39