1999 · Week 1

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

28·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

Seattle Kingdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

SEA -9.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.070
  • 38.8%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.024EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.222EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 35.5%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.40
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.076

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0040Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:2234Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 12:06413Punt3–0
DETQ1 9:3949Punt3–0
SEAQ1 7:41843Missed field goal3–0
DETQ1 2:56777Touchdown10–0
SEAQ2 14:5531Punt10–0
DETQ2 13:08410Punt10–0
DETQ2 11:0925Touchdown16–0
SEAQ2 10:264-6Safety18–0
DETQ2 9:2810Opp touchdown18–7
SEAQ2 9:1400Opp touchdown18–7
DETQ2 9:14983Touchdown25–7
SEAQ2 4:33522Punt25–7
DETQ2 1:41321End of half25–7
DETQ3 15:00631Punt25–7
SEAQ3 10:5846Punt25–7
DETQ3 9:01518Punt25–7
SEAQ3 6:11754Touchdown25–14
DETQ3 3:2938Punt25–14
SEAQ3 1:4135Punt25–14
DETQ3 0:06421Punt25–14
SEAQ4 13:323-5Punt25–14
DETQ4 12:57615Punt25–14
SEAQ4 10:441064Touchdown25–20
DETQ4 7:11853Field goal28–20
SEAQ4 2:1048Turnover on downs28–20
DETQ4 1:44217End of half28–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch16/2621631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Rivers16966.00
Greg Hill7243.40
Charlie Batch3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germane Crowell7111412
Ron Rivers44390
David Sloan33311
Sedrick Irvin1100
Johnnie Morton0200
Brian Stablein0300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna20/3020220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters13211.60
Jon Kitna177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Dawkins79852
Derrick Mayes38540
Ricky Watters44290
Fabien Bownes1190
Christian Fauria0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.30