Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.070
- 38.8%Success rate39.0%
- +0.024EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- 35.5%Third-down rate33.0%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.19Points / drive1.40
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/26 | 216 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Rivers | 16 | 96 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 7 | 11 | 141 | 2 |
| Ron Rivers | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/30 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 7 | 9 | 85 | 2 |
| Derrick Mayes | 3 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Fabien Bownes | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.30