2016 · WC

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

6·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -8

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.022
  • 45.4%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.07CPOE+4.81
  • 42.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.88
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SEA
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:0637Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:41626Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:59829Punt0–0
DETQ1 4:39931Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ2 14:521460Touchdown0–7
DETQ2 7:07412Punt0–7
SEAQ2 4:48651Field goal0–10
DETQ2 1:55647Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 0:2000End of half3–10
SEAQ3 15:001036Punt3–10
DETQ3 9:361056Field goal6–10
SEAQ3 4:03956Field goal6–13
DETQ4 14:1239Punt6–13
SEAQ4 12:57882Touchdown6–19
DETQ4 8:49419Punt6–19
SEAQ4 7:511269Touchdown6–26
DETQ4 3:36728Turnover on downs6–26
SEAQ4 1:1800End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3220500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner11343.10
Matthew Stafford3155.00
Golden Tate100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones47810
Zach Zenner66540
Golden Tate35250
Anquan Boldin26240
Eric Ebron26230
T.J. Jones0100
Matthew Mulligan11-20

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3022420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls271616.01
Alex Collins6132.20
Doug Baldwin166.00
Russell Wilson3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin11121041
Paul Richardson34481
Jimmy Graham34370
Jermaine Kearse23140
Alex Collins11110
Luke Willson1140
Thomas Rawls1210
Tanner McEvoy0100
J.D. McKissic0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.13