Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.022
- 45.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.07CPOE+4.81
- 42.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 2.05Points / drive1.88
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/32 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/30 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 27 | 161 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 11 | 12 | 104 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13