Closing spread
DET -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.073
- 44.8%Success rate45.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- +5.46CPOE-1.27
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.5%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.05Points / drive2.36
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/30 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 17 | 151 | 8.9 | 2 |
| Geno Smith | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 10 | 149 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/39 | 378 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 12 | 179 | 2 |
| Josh Reynolds | 7 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Tom Kennedy | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69