2022 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

48·45

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapLions
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.073
  • 44.8%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.070
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +5.46CPOE-1.27
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.36
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DET
SEAQ1 15:001180Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 8:2435Punt7–6
DETQ1 6:54132Touchdown7–6
SEAQ1 6:47566Touchdown14–6
DETQ1 4:351251Field goal14–9
SEAQ2 13:07832Field goal17–9
DETQ2 9:08537Turnover17–9
SEAQ2 6:42462Touchdown24–9
DETQ2 5:041590Touchdown24–15
DETQ3 15:0010Opp touchdown31–15
DETQ3 14:4964Punt31–15
SEAQ3 11:04562Missed field goal31–15
DETQ3 7:29471Touchdown31–23
SEAQ3 6:301290Touchdown38–23
DETQ3 0:33485Touchdown38–31
SEAQ4 14:231078Field goal41–31
DETQ4 9:321370Touchdown41–38
SEAQ4 5:26775Touchdown48–38
DETQ4 2:14975Touchdown48–45
SEAQ4 1:06312End of half48–45

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3032020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny171518.92
Geno Smith7497.01
Kenneth Walker III8293.60
Dee Eskridge166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf7101490
Tyler Lockett68910
Will Dissly44391
Colby Parkinson23280
Dee Eskridge11100
Rashaad Penny1160
Noah Fant1121
Kenneth Walker III11-50

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3937841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams191085.72
Craig Reynolds23015.00
Kalif Raymond133.00
Justin Jackson231.50
Jared Goff111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson8121792
Josh Reynolds78811
Tom Kennedy35540
Kalif Raymond35380
Quintez Cephus23150
Craig Reynolds11120
Justin Jackson2241
Jamaal Williams1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69