Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.058
- 44.6%Success rate45.9%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.54CPOE+1.34
- 36.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.00Points / drive2.29
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 32/41 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 10 | 59 | 2 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 28/35 | 323 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 6 | 66 | 2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Antoine Green | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.49