Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.156
- 44.4%Success rate49.6%
- +0.044EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.126EPA / rush+0.021
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.5%
- +4.61CPOE+5.81
- 37.5%Third-down rate48.1%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 1.82Points / drive3.02
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 38/56 | 395 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 3 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 12 | 51 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/18 | 292 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1/1 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 2 | 80 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.85