2024 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

29·42

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapLions
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.156
  • 44.4%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.126EPA / rush+0.021
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +4.61CPOE+5.81
  • 37.5%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 1.82Points / drive3.02
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DET
DETQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:43427Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:321293Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 3:11633Turnover0–7
DETQ1 0:51314Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 14:581265Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 10:08955Touchdown7–21
SEAQ2 5:11935Punt7–21
DETQ2 1:0146Punt7–21
SEAQ2 0:14317Missed field goal7–21
SEAQ3 15:001154Touchdown14–21
DETQ3 9:46570Touchdown14–28
SEAQ3 6:571075Touchdown20–28
DETQ3 3:03170Touchdown20–35
SEAQ3 2:52770Touchdown27–35
DETQ4 14:4837Punt27–35
SEAQ4 12:49850Punt27–35
DETQ4 8:57890Touchdown27–42
SEAQ4 5:231358Turnover on downs27–42
DETQ4 2:092-4Safety29–42
SEAQ4 2:01632Turnover29–42
DETQ4 1:0000End of half29–42

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith38/5639511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III12806.73
Geno Smith5387.60
Zach Charbonnet2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf7121040
Tyler Lockett59610
Jaxon Smith-Njigba812510
Zach Charbonnet55390
Kenneth Walker III45360
Jake Bobo33300
AJ Barner22271
Noah Fant22260
Laviska Shenault Jr.11180
Pharaoh Brown1230

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff18/1829220
Amon-Ra St. Brown1/1710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs14785.62
David Montgomery12403.31
Jared Goff2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams22801
Sam LaPorta44530
Tim Patrick22520
Amon-Ra St. Brown66451
David Montgomery11400
Brock Wright22130
Kalif Raymond1190
Jared Goff1171

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.85