Closing spread
DET -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.022
- 44.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.106
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- +7.30CPOE-2.79
- 38.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.23Points / drive1.75
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/17 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Moore | 4 | 4 | 97 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/40 | 310 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 10 | 117 | 2 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.82