2018 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

28·14

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapLions
  • +0.093EPA / play-0.022
  • 44.2%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.106
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +7.30CPOE-2.79
  • 38.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.75
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DET
SEAQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:081391Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 2:15775Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:1500Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 14:04334Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 12:42628Punt14–7
SEAQ2 9:4414100Touchdown21–7
DETQ2 2:28514Punt21–7
SEAQ2 1:1425End of half21–7
DETQ3 15:0049Punt21–7
SEAQ3 12:23973Turnover on downs21–7
DETQ3 7:36846Punt21–7
SEAQ3 3:16870Touchdown28–7
DETQ4 14:231170Touchdown28–14
SEAQ4 10:4039Punt28–14
DETQ4 8:27433Turnover28–14
SEAQ4 7:003-4Punt28–14
DETQ4 4:44731Turnover28–14
SEAQ4 3:08720Punt28–14
DETQ4 0:0619End of half28–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/1724830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson251054.21
Mike Davis10333.30
Russell Wilson2157.50
Tyler Lockett2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Moore44971
Ed Dickson22541
Tyler Lockett22341
Doug Baldwin23260
Chris Carson22190
Nick Vannett13160
Mike Davis1120

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4031021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson8222.80
Matthew Stafford166.00
LeGarrette Blount331.00
Golden Tate133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones7101172
Kerryon Johnson68690
Golden Tate712500
LeGarrette Blount11230
Luke Willson34210
Levine Toilolo11120
Kenny Golladay11120
Ameer Abdullah1160
Michael Roberts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.82