2015 · Week 4

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

10·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -10

Total

43

Model margin

+5.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.105
  • 44.9%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.045EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -0.09CPOE+7.64
  • 38.4%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.18
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SEA
DETQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:45826Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:39421Punt0–0
SEAQ1 3:55529Punt0–0
DETQ1 1:16520Punt0–0
SEAQ2 13:55762Touchdown0–7
DETQ2 10:561157Field goal3–7
SEAQ2 5:16951Field goal3–10
DETQ2 1:00413Punt3–10
SEAQ2 0:0600End of half3–10
SEAQ3 15:00735Field goal3–13
DETQ3 11:1137Punt3–13
DETQ3 9:3246Punt3–13
SEAQ3 8:131058Punt3–13
DETQ3 2:26413Punt3–13
SEAQ3 0:2858Turnover3–13
DETQ4 13:27511Punt3–13
SEAQ4 10:59513Opp touchdown10–13
SEAQ4 8:3239Punt10–13
DETQ4 6:231090Turnover10–13
SEAQ4 1:45358End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3520300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah13332.50
Zach Zenner294.50
Golden Tate166.00
Theo Riddick155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson711560
Theo Riddick55310
Golden Tate34290
Timothy Wright12260
Eric Ebron23220
Lance Moore23210
Ameer Abdullah25110
Zach Zenner1140

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2628710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls17482.80
Russell Wilson10404.00
Fred Jackson3217.00
Tyler Lockett111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse22840
Tyler Lockett45580
Doug Baldwin34361
Fred Jackson24330
Jimmy Graham45290
Chris Matthews11210
Luke Willson23150
B.J. Daniels11120
Thomas Rawls11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.08