Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
43
Model margin
+5.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.105
- 44.9%Success rate47.1%
- +0.045EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.9%
- -0.09CPOE+7.64
- 38.4%Third-down rate47.8%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.90Points / drive2.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/35 | 203 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/26 | 287 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 2 | 84 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| B.J. Daniels | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.08