Closing spread
SEA -8.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.042
- 42.1%Success rate43.8%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.123EPA / rush+0.026
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.05CPOE+4.08
- 34.7%Third-down rate37.3%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.73Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 22/37 | 262 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 11 | 111 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 5 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/29 | 236 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 25 | 170 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 2 | 65 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 9 | 63 | 3 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.47