2021 · Week 17

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Tim Boyle

29·51

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -8.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.061EPA / play+0.042
  • 42.1%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.123EPA / rush+0.026
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.05CPOE+4.08
  • 34.7%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:52841Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 9:421066Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 5:46414Punt0–7
SEAQ1 4:09641Field goal0–10
DETQ1 1:0032Punt0–10
SEAQ2 14:49264Touchdown0–17
DETQ2 14:07545Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 11:081169Touchdown7–24
DETQ2 5:5930Punt7–24
SEAQ2 5:341190Touchdown7–31
DETQ2 0:21338Missed field goal7–31
DETQ3 15:0010Turnover7–31
SEAQ3 14:52221Touchdown7–38
DETQ3 14:12973Touchdown15–38
SEAQ3 10:1400Touchdown15–38
DETQ3 10:131170Touchdown22–38
SEAQ3 4:501380Touchdown22–45
DETQ4 12:361270Touchdown29–45
SEAQ4 7:04422Field goal29–48
DETQ4 5:2924Turnover29–48
SEAQ4 4:573-2Field goal29–51
DETQ4 4:3310Turnover29–51
SEAQ4 4:23544End of half29–51

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Boyle22/3726223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift4328.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown22311.51
Jamaal Williams11222.01
Tim Boyle11414.00
Craig Reynolds441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown8111111
KhaDarel Hodge510760
Trinity Benson24310
Jamaal Williams33220
Craig Reynolds1190
D'Andre Swift2370
Tom Kennedy0300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2923640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny251706.82
Dee Eskridge13030.00
Travis Homer6274.50
Russell Wilson6244.00
Tyler Lockett177.00
DK Metcalf166.00
DeeJay Dallas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Freddie Swain22650
DK Metcalf69633
Gerald Everett35360
Tyler Lockett33241
Rashaad Penny23150
Colby Parkinson11120
Will Dissly1180
Dee Eskridge1370
Penny Hart1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.47