2012 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·28

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapLions
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.004
  • 45.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.131
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +5.50CPOE-2.29
  • 39.8%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.65
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2009 · W9DET @ SEA20–32SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DET
DETQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:281357Field goal3–0
DETQ1 5:30982Touchdown3–7
SEAQ2 15:00177Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 14:4333Punt10–7
SEAQ2 12:23415Touchdown17–7
DETQ2 11:39680Touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 8:4936Punt17–14
DETQ2 7:0937Punt17–14
SEAQ2 6:1039Punt17–14
DETQ2 3:57835Punt17–14
SEAQ2 0:47637Missed field goal17–14
SEAQ3 15:00624Punt17–14
DETQ3 12:111354Turnover17–14
SEAQ3 5:18633Turnover17–14
DETQ3 1:57956Touchdown17–21
SEAQ4 11:351292Touchdown24–21
DETQ4 5:271680Touchdown24–28
SEAQ4 0:20219Turnover24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson25/3523621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch121058.81
Robert Turbin4143.50
Russell Wilson199.00
Sidney Rice133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate77640
Sidney Rice68551
Robert Turbin23280
Anthony McCoy22270
Zach Miller25221
Charly Martin23170
Leon Washington22160
Marshawn Lynch1310
Evan Moore0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford34/4935231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure10464.60
Joique Bell7253.60
Matthew Stafford4123.01
Kevin Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Titus Young991002
Brandon Pettigrew79740
Tony Scheffler48460
Calvin Johnson38460
Ryan Broyles35371
Joique Bell44330
Mikel Leshoure3590
Kevin Smith1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin-1.91