Closing spread
DET -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.004
- 45.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.131
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.50CPOE-2.29
- 39.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.17Points / drive1.65
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. DET are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/35 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 105 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Charly Martin | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 34/49 | 352 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titus Young | 9 | 9 | 100 | 2 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 3 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-1.91