Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.035
- 37.3%Success rate40.6%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 34.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.17Points / drive1.38
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 15/23 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 1 |
| J.J. Johnson | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Dan Marino | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 4 | 5 | 101 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Troy Drayton | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Yatil Green | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| John Avery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 24/40 | 270 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 11 | 105 | 3 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 7 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79