2004 · Week 14

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB A.J. Feeley

17·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -11.5

Total

41

Model margin

+6.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.059
  • 35.8%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.181EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.056
  • 6.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.84
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley17/3517011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris9364.01
Travis Minor10242.40
Chris Chambers188.00
A.J. Feeley221.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer16/3021902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tatum Bell171237.22
Reuben Droughns18623.40
Jake Plummer5112.20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.98