Closing spread
DEN -11.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.059
- 35.8%Success rate45.7%
- -0.181EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.056
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- 34.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 0.97Points / drive1.84
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 49 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:05 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:14 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 6:10 | 7 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 3:01 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 13:08 | 10 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 8:38 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:19 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:49 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q2 2:14 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:47 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| MIA | Q2 1:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q3 14:44 | 4 | 35 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 12:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–17 |
| DEN | Q3 10:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 8:42 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q3 4:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–17 |
| MIA | Q3 3:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q3 2:07 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 17–17 |
| MIA | Q4 12:55 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q4 11:48 | 9 | 68 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| MIA | Q4 6:50 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q4 4:59 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| MIA | Q4 2:50 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 1:59 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 17/35 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/30 | 219 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 123 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Reuben Droughns | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.98