2011 · Week 7

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

18·15

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapDolphins
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.033
  • 39.5%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -6.16CPOE+2.28
  • 30.8%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.63
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:4438Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:1837Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:56634Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:283-7Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:57510Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 1:40936Field goal0–3
DENQ2 14:14754Missed field goal0–3
MIAQ2 9:43521Punt0–3
DENQ2 6:5548Turnover0–3
MIAQ2 5:54524Field goal0–6
DENQ2 2:41716Punt0–6
MIAQ2 0:1714End of half0–6
DENQ3 15:0031Punt0–6
MIAQ3 13:2734Punt0–6
DENQ3 11:55414Punt0–6
MIAQ3 9:1134Punt0–6
DENQ3 7:3032Punt0–6
MIAQ3 6:251172Touchdown0–12
DENQ4 14:54510Punt0–12
MIAQ4 12:39850Field goal0–15
DENQ4 7:34511Punt0–15
MIAQ4 5:5033Punt0–15
DENQ4 5:23880Touchdown7–15
MIAQ4 2:4400Touchdown7–15
DENQ4 2:4129Touchdown7–15
DENQ4 2:00847Touchdown15–15
MIAQ4 0:1700End of half15–15
MIAOT39Punt15–15
DENOT32Punt15–15
MIAOT521Turnover15–15
DENOT32Field goal18–15

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow13/2716120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee18764.20
Tim Tebow9596.60
Knowshon Moreno7284.00
Lance Ball6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Willis12420
Daniel Fells24311
Demaryius Thomas310271
Eric Decker23210
Eddie Royal24140
Knowshon Moreno22100
Dante Rosario0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore22/3319710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas19532.80
Reggie Bush10424.20
Matt Moore2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall69610
Davone Bess712520
Brian Hartline22290
Charles Clay11290
Anthony Fasano22221
Reggie Bush2240
Daniel Thomas2500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+3.04