Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.033
- 39.5%Success rate39.0%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- -6.16CPOE+2.28
- 30.8%Third-down rate33.1%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 1.16Points / drive1.63
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 13/27 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Willis | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 10 | 27 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 22/33 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 7 | 12 | 52 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.04