2014 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

36·39

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.083
  • 48.7%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.063EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.14CPOE+3.06
  • 41.5%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.29
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DEN
MIAQ1 15:00780Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:221138Field goal7–3
MIAQ1 4:1032Punt7–3
DENQ1 3:1536Punt7–3
MIAQ1 1:40847Touchdown14–3
DENQ2 12:531278Touchdown14–10
MIAQ2 7:081084Touchdown21–10
DENQ2 1:54990Touchdown21–17
MIAQ2 0:1200End of half21–17
DENQ3 15:001260Missed field goal21–17
MIAQ3 8:06813Punt21–17
MIAQ3 3:2057Touchdown28–17
DENQ3 2:11960Touchdown28–25
MIAQ4 14:09517Punt28–25
DENQ4 11:171284Touchdown28–32
MIAQ4 5:01315Turnover28–32
DENQ4 3:3028Touchdown28–39
MIAQ4 3:131149Touchdown36–39
DENQ4 1:34228End of half36–39

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill26/3622831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller12594.90
Daniel Thomas3196.31
Ryan Tannehill4153.81
LaMichael James242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry711502
Brandon Gibson56420
Brian Hartline22390
Mike Wallace45351
Dion Sims45310
Rishard Matthews23240
Lamar Miller1180
LaMichael James0100
Damien Williams12-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/3525740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson271676.21
Juwan Thompson5336.60
Emmanuel Sanders133.00
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders9131250
Demaryius Thomas1013873
C.J. Anderson44280
Wes Welker44181
Jacob Tamme11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.88