Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.083
- 48.7%Success rate46.3%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.14CPOE+3.06
- 41.5%Third-down rate44.4%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.97Points / drive2.29
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 26/36 | 228 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 11 | 50 | 2 |
| Brandon Gibson | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/35 | 257 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 27 | 167 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Juwan Thompson | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 13 | 125 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 13 | 87 | 3 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.88