Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.095
- 42.3%Success rate47.3%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.5%
- +3.74CPOE+4.40
- 36.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.87Points / drive2.34
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/38 | 306 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/26 | 309 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike White | 2/2 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 18 | 203 | 11.3 | 2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 3 |
| Chris Brooks | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike White | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 11 | 157 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 68 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 4 | 4 | 30 | 2 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.23