2023 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

20·70

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapDolphins
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.095
  • 42.3%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.6%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +3.74CPOE+4.40
  • 36.8%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.34
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00375Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 13:3735Punt0–7
MIAQ1 12:04981Touchdown0–14
DENQ1 6:311075Touchdown7–14
MIAQ1 1:121290Touchdown7–21
DENQ2 10:16872Field goal10–21
MIAQ2 6:3649Turnover on downs10–21
DENQ2 4:473-2Punt10–21
MIAQ2 3:09680Touchdown10–28
DENQ2 1:4925Turnover10–34
MIAQ2 1:3313Touchdown10–35
DENQ2 1:29973Field goal13–35
MIAQ2 0:0316End of half13–35
DENQ3 15:00417Punt13–35
MIAQ3 12:171190Touchdown13–42
DENQ3 7:48752Turnover13–42
MIAQ3 5:13977Touchdown13–49
DENQ3 0:2910Turnover13–49
MIAQ3 0:1528Touchdown13–56
DENQ4 14:5533Punt13–56
MIAQ4 13:5538Punt13–56
DENQ4 11:5737Punt13–56
MIAQ4 10:28368Touchdown19–63
DENQ4 9:0500Touchdown20–63
MIAQ4 8:50275Touchdown20–70
DENQ4 8:01849Turnover on downs20–70
MIAQ4 4:00657Turnover on downs20–70
DENQ4 0:3017End of half20–70

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3830611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams11423.80
Jaleel McLaughlin5153.00
Samaje Perine393.00
Marvin Mims Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton811911
Jerry Jeudy57810
Marvin Mims Jr.35730
Javonte Williams23230
Samaje Perine23150
Brandon Johnson23120
Nate Adkins11110
Chris Manhertz0100
Adam Trautman0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa23/2630940
Mike White2/26710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane1820311.32
Raheem Mostert13826.33
Chris Brooks9667.30
Mike White1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill9111571
Robbie Chosen11681
Raheem Mostert77601
Braxton Berrios22330
De'Von Achane44302
Durham Smythe11150
River Cracraft11130
Julian Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.23