2005 · Week 1

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

10·34

Dolphins

Miami

QB Gus Frerotte

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapDolphins
  • +0.088EPA / play-0.040
  • 44.7%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback-0.007
  • +0.067EPA / rush-0.086
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.48
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.029

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer22/4825112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tatum Bell13473.60
Jake Plummer3186.00
Mike Anderson451.30

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte24/3627521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Chambers16161.00
Ronnie Brown22572.60
Travis Minor5173.40
Sammy Morris2147.01
Gus Frerotte320.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95