Closing spread
DEN -4.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.040
- 44.7%Success rate40.9%
- +0.109EPA / dropback-0.007
- +0.067EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.3%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.97Points / drive1.48
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:18 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:43 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:50 | 4 | 37 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 3:39 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 12:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 11:01 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 10:47 | 12 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 5:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 4:22 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| MIA | Q2 1:51 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q2 0:09 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q3 10:44 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIA | Q3 9:10 | 11 | 38 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q3 4:47 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–13 |
| MIA | Q3 3:00 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| DEN | Q4 13:11 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–20 |
| DEN | Q4 11:36 | 6 | 26 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| MIA | Q4 9:19 | 1 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q4 9:09 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| MIA | Q4 7:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q4 5:37 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| MIA | Q4 3:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q4 2:15 | 8 | 57 | Opp touchdown | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 22/48 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 24/36 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 61 | 61.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 22 | 57 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95