Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
50
Model margin
+1.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.101
- 46.3%Success rate49.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.74CPOE+1.41
- 37.1%Third-down rate48.2%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.69Points / drive2.01
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 23/40 | 281 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 24/46 | 307 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hall | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.50