2017 · Week 13

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

9·35

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

41

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapDolphins
  • -0.119EPA / play-0.125
  • 38.4%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.198
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -2.16CPOE-0.06
  • 38.9%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.31
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001144Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:31721Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 5:5837Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:2840Safety0–2
MIAQ1 3:0732Punt0–2
DENQ1 1:25667Field goal3–2
MIAQ2 13:28975Touchdown3–9
DENQ2 9:3910Opp touchdown3–16
DENQ2 9:32510Punt3–16
MIAQ2 6:42211Turnover3–16
DENQ2 5:4933Punt3–16
MIAQ2 4:54732Punt3–16
DENQ2 1:41955Turnover on downs3–16
DENQ3 15:003-3Punt3–16
MIAQ3 13:17538Field goal3–19
DENQ3 10:32516Punt3–19
MIAQ3 8:17224Turnover3–19
DENQ3 7:2933Punt3–19
MIAQ3 6:2839Opp touchdown9–19
MIAQ3 4:56461Touchdown9–26
DENQ3 2:5431Punt9–26
MIAQ3 1:5335Punt9–26
DENQ3 0:5632Punt9–26
MIAQ4 14:49417Punt9–26
DENQ4 12:02524Turnover9–32
MIAQ4 10:27123Touchdown9–33
DENQ4 10:2100Safety9–33
MIAQ4 10:213-3Safety9–35
MIAQ4 8:49413Punt9–35
DENQ4 6:1634Punt9–35
MIAQ4 4:4539Punt9–35
DENQ4 3:011167End of half9–35

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian19/4120003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson15674.50
Trevor Siemian3165.30
Jamaal Charles3124.00
Devontae Booker284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Anderson47430
Jamaal Charles55390
Virgil Green11360
Demaryius Thomas210270
Bennie Fowler14230
Austin Traylor22160
Emmanuel Sanders27110
Cody Latimer1350
Devontae Booker1100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/3123522
David Fales0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake231205.21
Senorise Perry5224.40
Jakeem Grant122.00
Jay Cutler111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills513981
Jarvis Landry56620
Anthony Fasano11290
Kenyan Drake35210
Julius Thomas33201
DeVante Parker1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.28