Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
41
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play-0.125
- 38.4%Success rate39.2%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.198
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- -2.16CPOE-0.06
- 38.9%Third-down rate31.0%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.24Points / drive1.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/41 | 200 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Austin Traylor | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/31 | 235 | 2 | 2 |
| David Fales | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Senorise Perry | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.28