Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
46
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.071
- 46.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.23CPOE-5.11
- 38.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.99Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/18 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 11/20 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvon Ahmed | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 18/30 | 270 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 5 | 8 | 119 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36