2020 · Week 11

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

13·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

46

Model margin

-0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.071
  • 46.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.103
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +1.23CPOE-5.11
  • 38.5%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.59
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN
2002 · W6MIA @ DEN24–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DEN
MIAQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:5230Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 13:03617Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 10:0831Punt7–0
MIAQ1 9:0634Punt7–0
DENQ1 7:341183Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 1:3435Punt7–7
DENQ1 0:0239Punt7–7
MIAQ2 13:1830Punt7–7
DENQ2 11:49448Field goal7–10
MIAQ2 9:551352Field goal10–10
DENQ2 2:34860Field goal10–13
DENQ3 15:001061Turnover on downs10–13
MIAQ3 9:2033Punt10–13
DENQ3 7:171066Touchdown10–20
MIAQ3 2:311015Punt10–20
DENQ4 12:5335Punt10–20
MIAQ4 10:44744Field goal13–20
DENQ4 7:51664Turnover13–20
MIAQ4 5:131479Turnover13–20
DENQ4 1:03462End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/1811701
Tua Tagovailoa11/208310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Salvon Ahmed12433.60
Ryan Fitzpatrick263.00
Matt Breida242.00
Jakeem Grant133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker69611
Mike Gesicki45430
Salvon Ahmed56310
Malcolm Perry35230
Antonio Callaway11130
Jakeem Grant26120
Mack Hollins1290
Patrick Laird1280
Durham Smythe0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock18/3027001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon15845.62
Phillip Lindsay16825.10
Drew Lock22311.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick581190
Noah Fant45550
Jerry Jeudy38370
KJ Hamler46350
Nick Vannett22240
Troy Fumagalli0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.36