Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
49
Model margin
+5.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.094
- 44.6%Success rate38.5%
- +0.128EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.220
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- 44.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.72Points / drive1.22
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 22/33 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Hoard | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Andrew Glover | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 17/30 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 1/1 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Calloway | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Ronnie Harris | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 2 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89