1999 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Randall Cunningham

17·14

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

49

Model margin

+5.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.094
  • 44.6%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.128EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.220
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 44.4%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.22
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.008EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:13640Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:02825Turnover0–0
MINQ1 5:53626Missed field goal0–0
ATLQ1 1:40734Turnover0–0
MINQ2 13:5443Touchdown7–0
ATLQ2 13:5400Field goal7–0
MINQ2 12:49418Field goal10–0
ATLQ2 10:231050Missed field goal10–0
MINQ2 6:221050Touchdown17–0
ATLQ2 1:48575Touchdown17–7
MINQ2 0:43617End of half17–7
MINQ3 15:00821Punt17–7
ATLQ3 10:27731Punt17–7
MINQ3 5:1439Punt17–7
ATLQ3 3:361146Touchdown17–14
MINQ4 13:181359Missed field goal17–14
ATLQ4 5:50758Missed field goal17–14
MINQ4 3:38956Turnover on downs17–14
ATLQ4 0:02132End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham22/3318410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leroy Hoard12504.21
Robert Smith16472.90
Randall Cunningham3124.00
Randy Moss166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter710701
Andrew Glover33370
Leroy Hoard22240
Randy Moss35240
Jake Reed24130
Robert Smith3460
Chris Walsh1160
Carlester Crumpler1140
David Palmer0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler17/3025810
Tony Graziani1/13200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Anderson16503.10
Chris Chandler3217.00
Byron Hanspard393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Calloway57841
Ronnie Harris34630
O.J. Santiago26530
Terance Mathis49400
Jamal Anderson22340
Brian Kozlowski1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.89