Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.038
- 48.4%Success rate46.3%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.01CPOE+4.00
- 39.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.10Points / drive2.09
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/37 | 344 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 6 | 7 | 142 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 8 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Drake London | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/28 | 347 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 8 | 12 | 133 | 3 |
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 7 | 132 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.15