Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.034
- 44.0%Success rate42.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.47CPOE-2.18
- 44.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.87Points / drive1.59
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/41 | 298 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antone Smith | 4 | 62 | 15.5 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 14 | 73 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/30 | 317 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 18 | 135 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 8 | 10 | 132 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.39