2014 · Week 4

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

28·41

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapVikings
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.034
  • 44.0%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.47CPOE-2.18
  • 44.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.59
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIN
ATLQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:58873Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 9:271180Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 3:56553Touchdown7–14
ATLQ1 1:31924Punt7–14
MINQ2 13:07461Missed field goal7–14
ATLQ2 11:221486Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 5:56980Touchdown14–21
ATLQ2 1:5936Punt14–21
MINQ2 1:25984Field goal14–24
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half14–24
MINQ3 15:00748Field goal14–27
ATLQ3 10:40780Touchdown21–27
MINQ3 7:191139Punt21–27
ATLQ3 2:47463Touchdown28–27
MINQ3 1:3134Punt28–27
ATLQ3 0:2535Punt28–27
MINQ4 14:41978Touchdown28–35
ATLQ4 10:50624Punt28–35
MINQ4 6:29423Field goal28–38
ATLQ4 3:3820Turnover28–38
MINQ4 3:25615Field goal28–41
ATLQ4 1:14441Turnover28–41

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/4129832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antone Smith46215.51
Steven Jackson13493.80
Devonta Freeman284.00
Matt Ryan221.00
Jacquizz Rodgers122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones68820
Roddy White414731
Devin Hester57701
Jacquizz Rodgers44350
Steven Jackson22130
Levine Toilolo12120
Devonta Freeman22120
Patrick DiMarco1111

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/3031700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon181357.50
Matt Asiata20783.93
Teddy Bridgewater5275.41
Christian Ponder111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright8101320
Greg Jennings34720
Cordarrelle Patterson24380
Matt Asiata34220
Rhett Ellison11190
Chase Ford14170
Jerick McKinnon13170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.39