2019 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

12·28

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapVikings
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.056
  • 44.5%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.32CPOE+3.53
  • 41.8%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.31
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIN
ATLQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:53331Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:5037Turnover0–7
MINQ1 9:55441Touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 8:221139Punt0–14
MINQ1 2:31836Punt0–14
ATLQ2 12:22546Turnover0–14
MINQ2 10:211259Touchdown0–21
ATLQ2 4:40830Punt0–21
MINQ2 1:4330Punt0–21
ATLQ2 0:37336End of half0–21
MINQ3 15:00623Punt0–21
ATLQ3 10:451451Turnover0–21
MINQ3 3:08657Touchdown0–28
ATLQ3 0:2930Punt0–28
MINQ4 15:0034Punt0–28
ATLQ4 12:35866Touchdown6–28
MINQ4 9:19620Punt6–28
ATLQ4 4:281462Touchdown12–28
MINQ4 1:0500End of half12–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan33/4630422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith6315.20
Matt Ryan22412.00
Devonta Freeman8192.40
Russell Gage1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper99770
Calvin Ridley46641
Mohamed Sanu56570
Justin Hardy45410
Julio Jones611311
Russell Gage12130
Devonta Freeman34120
Ito Smith1190
Luke Stocker0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins8/109810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook211115.32
Alexander Mattison9495.40
Ameer Abdullah284.00
Kirk Cousins640.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen33431
Stefon Diggs22370
Dalvin Cook2290
Chad Beebe1190
Kyle Rudolph0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.68