Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.056
- 44.5%Success rate42.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.082
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.32CPOE+3.53
- 41.8%Third-down rate44.0%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 2.01Points / drive2.31
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 33/46 | 304 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 9 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 11 | 31 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 8/10 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 21 | 111 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68