Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.089
- 44.3%Success rate49.1%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.025
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.4%
- +1.23CPOE+4.45
- 43.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 2.28Points / drive2.30
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/40 | 371 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 10 | 137 | 2 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/36 | 343 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 166 | 2 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45