2020 · Week 6

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

40·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

53

Model margin

+3.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapVikings
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.089
  • 44.3%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.025
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +1.23CPOE+4.45
  • 43.8%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.30
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIN
MINQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:43529Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 12:0239Punt7–0
ATLQ1 9:531259Field goal10–0
MINQ1 3:0231Punt10–0
ATLQ1 1:32328Turnover10–0
MINQ1 0:07874Turnover on downs10–0
ATLQ2 11:41824Punt10–0
MINQ2 7:06417Turnover10–0
ATLQ2 5:46740Touchdown17–0
MINQ2 1:54526Turnover17–0
ATLQ2 1:06846Field goal20–0
MINQ2 0:0113End of half20–0
ATLQ3 15:001051Field goal23–0
MINQ3 10:451180Touchdown23–7
ATLQ3 6:25869Touchdown30–7
MINQ3 2:0131Punt30–7
ATLQ3 0:32627Punt30–7
MINQ4 11:1934Punt30–7
ATLQ4 10:40742Field goal33–7
MINQ4 7:07970Touchdown33–15
ATLQ4 3:58444Touchdown40–15
MINQ4 2:11380Touchdown40–23
ATLQ4 1:2614End of half40–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4037140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley20472.40
Brian Hill10282.80
Matt Ryan482.00
Ito Smith284.00
Calvin Ridley188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones8101372
Russell Gage44650
Calvin Ridley67611
Hayden Hurst44571
Todd Gurley34200
Ito Smith11170
Brian Hill2260
Christian Blake1250
Olamide Zaccheaus0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3634333

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison10262.60
Ameer Abdullah273.50
Mike Boone1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9111662
Irv Smith45550
Adam Thielen35511
Kyle Rudolph34470
Chad Beebe26130
Mike Boone1160
Alexander Mattison1240
Ameer Abdullah1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.45