Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.047
- 42.5%Success rate45.0%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.185
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.152
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +3.66CPOE+2.96
- 44.3%Third-down rate44.1%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 2.02Points / drive2.02
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 25/30 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/29 | 173 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.55