2017 · Week 13

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

14·9

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.047
  • 42.5%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.185
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.152
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +3.66CPOE+2.96
  • 44.3%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.02
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ATL
MINQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:481677Field goal0–3
MINQ1 5:24922Punt0–3
ATLQ1 1:3336Punt0–3
MINQ1 0:05953Touchdown7–3
ATLQ2 10:01770Field goal7–6
MINQ2 5:473-9Punt7–6
ATLQ2 3:49517Punt7–6
MINQ2 1:44760End of half7–6
ATLQ3 15:00641Field goal7–9
MINQ3 11:57412Punt7–9
ATLQ3 9:40416Punt7–9
MINQ3 8:111589Touchdown14–9
ATLQ4 14:5634Punt14–9
MINQ4 13:15613Punt14–9
ATLQ4 9:32944Missed field goal14–9
MINQ4 4:58655End of half14–9

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum25/3022720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray16764.80
Jerick McKinnon9242.70
Stefon Diggs155.00
Case Keenum4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen45510
Kyle Rudolph45361
Stefon Diggs25320
Jerick McKinnon55281
Latavius Murray33210
Michael Floyd22200
Jarius Wright33180
Laquon Treadwell1190

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/2917300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12746.20
Tevin Coleman8222.80
Taylor Gabriel155.00
Matt Ryan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu35430
Tevin Coleman36270
Levine Toilolo22250
Julio Jones26240
Austin Hooper34210
Marvin Hall12200
Devonta Freeman1270
Taylor Gabriel1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.55