Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.089
- 43.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.80CPOE-3.52
- 37.5%Third-down rate40.2%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.84Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 20/30 | 158 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaren Hall | 5/6 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jaren Hall | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 12 | 69 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Trishton Jackson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 21/38 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 6 | 100 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99