2023 · Week 9

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Jaren Hall

31·28

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Taylor Heinicke

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.089
  • 43.2%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.171
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.80CPOE-3.52
  • 37.5%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.58
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN
2011 · W12MIN @ ATL14–24ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00722Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:0838Punt0–0
ATLQ1 8:59434Field goal0–3
MINQ1 7:06878Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 2:20739Punt3–3
MINQ2 14:533-7Safety3–5
ATLQ2 14:04938Field goal3–8
MINQ2 8:574-5Turnover3–8
ATLQ2 7:3331Field goal3–11
MINQ2 5:321360Touchdown10–11
ATLQ2 0:55518Punt10–11
MINQ2 0:0900End of half10–11
MINQ3 15:0035Turnover10–11
ATLQ3 13:473-6Field goal10–14
MINQ3 12:15764Field goal13–14
ATLQ3 8:13580Touchdown13–21
MINQ3 6:5435Punt13–21
ATLQ3 5:12114Turnover13–21
MINQ3 4:54640Touchdown21–21
ATLQ3 2:2010Turnover21–21
MINQ3 2:12411Field goal24–21
ATLQ4 14:18630Punt24–21
MINQ4 12:33830Punt24–21
ATLQ4 9:061384Touchdown24–28
MINQ4 2:081175Touchdown31–28
ATLQ4 0:22416End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs20/3015820
Jaren Hall5/67800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joshua Dobbs7669.41
Alexander Mattison16442.80
Cam Akers8253.10
Jaren Hall2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson712690
Jordan Addison57520
Alexander Mattison22491
Johnny Mundt11180
K.J. Osborn22170
Brandon Powell23151
Cam Akers33130
Trishton Jackson1320
Josh Oliver2210

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke21/3826811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson11514.60
Tyler Allgeier12393.31
Taylor Heinicke3206.70
Cordarrelle Patterson100.00
Jonnu Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith561001
KhaDarel Hodge36600
Kyle Pitts45560
Mack Hollins33360
Van Jefferson14140
Bijan Robinson2480
Cordarrelle Patterson1130
Damiere Byrd0200
Tyler Allgeier23-90

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.99